Total team luck points and no luck power through week 17

by Bruce D

Team luck points = (bad luck points)-(good luck points), so negative numbers are the luckiest
For a more in-depth explanation of what "luck" points are, go to a previous post here.
Luck is tracked to better analyze a team's true ability and to help predict results of upcoming games where some may not know what portion of a team's record and points performance was due to just luck.

Luck points are valued as follows:

Points for(+) the unlucky team, are the same amount of points against(-) the lucky team.

punts blocked=3
interceptions=2.5
fumbles lost=2.5
field goal miss/block=2.5
punt returns for a TD=4.5
ko returns for a TD=4.5

Season	Team	All Season	Last 3 Games	Last 2 Games	Last Game
2010	nwe	-87	-32	-27	-9.5
2010	atl	-49	-12	-7	-7
2010	pit	-38	-0.5	-5	-7.5
2010	bal	-27	-20	-17.5	-10
2010	tam	-25	0	0	-2.5
2010	phi	-24.5	10.5	12.5	5
2010	nyj	-22	-17	-12.5	-12.5
2010	chi	-21.5	-14.5	0	0
2010	gnb	-18	-7.5	-12.5	0
2010	kan	-14.5	2.5	5	2.5
2010	ari	-11.5	2.5	0	5
2010	oak	-10	-4.5	-9.5	-2.5
2010	ten	-7.5	0	0	2.5
2010	hou	-5.5	-7.5	-7.5	-7.5
2010	cle	-2.5	15	15	7.5
2010	ind	-1	-0.5	4.5	-2.5
2010	sfo	-0.5	-2	-4.5	-5
2010	stl	1	2	-0.5	0
2010	det	4.5	-5	-5	2.5
2010	dal	6.5	-5	0	-5
2010	den	10	-9.5	-4.5	-4.5
2010	sea	10.5	2.5	-2.5	0
2010	nyg	14.5	7	5	-7.5
2010	nor	15	5	2.5	2.5
2010	was	15.5	7.5	2.5	7.5
2010	buf	20.5	17.5	30	12.5
2010	min	22	4.5	-10	-2.5
2010	car	26.5	2	4.5	7
2010	cin	34.5	7.5	7.5	10
2010	jac	44.5	17.5	12.5	7.5
2010	sdg	55	4.5	7	4.5
2010	mia	64.5	29.5	17	9.5

Power is derived by calculating each team's offensive and defensive points production and prevention for each game, comparing it to the league average each week, and then adjusting for strength of opponent.

Next, all lucky type plays, good or bad, such as interceptions, fumbles lost, blocked punts, kick off return touchdowns, missed field goals etc. are valued, and each team's power is adjusted by a portion of this luck value. If a team has been overly lucky, their power will be adjusted lower due to the fact that they can't be expected to continue to be so lucky. For the same reasons, an unlucky team's power will be increased.

A power rating of 1 is considered league average, so a team with a rating of 1.2 can be thought to be 20% better than the average team, and a team with a rating of .85 can be thought to be 15% worse than average.

Rank	Team	Power
1	gnb	1.169
2	pit	1.156
3	sdg	1.156
4	nwe	1.132
5	bal	1.087
6	atl	1.083
7	nor	1.075
8	nyg	1.06
9	ind	1.055
10	nyj	1.055
11	phi	1.044
12	oak	1.042
13	chi	1.039
14	mia	1.025
15	det	1.017
16	kan	1.006
17	dal	1.005
18	ten	1.004
19	tam	1.002
20	jac	0.995
21	cin	0.99
22	min	0.986
23	sfo	0.985
24	hou	0.983
25	cle	0.967
26	was	0.964
27	stl	0.953
28	den	0.944
29	buf	0.933
30	sea	0.925
31	ari	0.865
32	car	0.859