tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post1804448591492831439..comments2023-03-23T07:34:12.473-04:00Comments on Advanced NFL Stats Community: Total team luck points and no luck power through week 17Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-47973471317878235922011-01-11T21:30:56.122-05:002011-01-11T21:30:56.122-05:00Eric,
What I try to do is track what actually aff...Eric,<br /><br />What I try to do is track what actually affected the game in a lucky or unlucky way.<br /><br />What you said <br />"I would say that a team which loses only 4 out of 16 fumbles, for example, is extremely lucky, while a team that loses 4 out of 6 fumbles may actually be unlucky if we assume that not fumbling is a repeatable skill."<br />seems true and reasonable, but not my goal.<br /><br />I'm trying to track which points are real, and which points are due to luck, not so much who's the luckiest team. That's just a byproduct.Bruce D.http://i60200nfl.clanteam.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-59040838550245933612011-01-11T19:28:11.237-05:002011-01-11T19:28:11.237-05:00I like what you're trying to do here, but I...I like what you're trying to do here, but I'm not sure about how you've defined luck. I would say that a team which loses only 4 out of 16 fumbles, for example, is extremely lucky, while a team that loses 4 out of 6 fumbles may actually be unlucky if we assume that not fumbling is a repeatable skill.<br /><br />To some extent, this may explain what Adam H noted about how the luck rankings resemble traditional power rankings. Perhaps good teams minimize the chances to get unlucky on offense and maximize the chances to get lucky on D.Eric Moorehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01496717842529415018noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-58312616430116191132011-01-07T10:33:35.081-05:002011-01-07T10:33:35.081-05:00It's surprising to me how similar the first li...It's surprising to me how similar the first list is to must conventional power rankings. Obviously there's going to be a few outliers in the middle (and SD of course is at the very bottom), but seeing Patriots, Falcons, and Steelers at the top is priceless. You gotta be lucky to win.Adam Hnoreply@blogger.com