By Mike Sommers
NB: I have also posted this on a site that I own and occasionally like to post to here.
I recently read Brian Burke’s article describing how coaches should avoid the mentality of trying to set up 3rd and short or 2nd and short and instead try to convert the first down.
It is not that I don’t agree with the article, but I wanted to consider several exceptions to that rule, and in the process came up with some interesting conclusions.
I can illustrate several instances where it’s best to NOT convert on first down. On 3rd however I can only think of 1, and it isn’t provable so much as it is intuitive, but I do have a statistical reference, unfortunately we just don’t have enough information to account for changes AS the play develops.