Friday, December 23, 2011

[+/-]

Towards a Better Pythagorean: Should Football Outsiders "hold the update"?

Thursday, December 22, 2011

[+/-]

Betting Market Power Rankings – Week 16

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

[+/-]

Dispatches From the Anti-League: #2

Sunday, December 18, 2011

[+/-]

The Favorite/Long Shot Bias – Analysis of Superbowl Futures

Friday, December 16, 2011

[+/-]

Revisiting the Big Wins Index: the kind of wins today that do predict wins tomorrow

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

[+/-]

Betting Market Power Rankings – Week 15

Friday, December 9, 2011

[+/-]

Will Tim Tebow be Denver's Dick Jauron? Or: The Meaning of Clutch Victories

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

[+/-]

Betting Market Power Rankings – Week 14

Friday, December 2, 2011

[+/-]

Betting Market Power Rankings

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

[+/-]

Adjusting Strength of Schedule

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

[+/-]

Peyton Manning - Colts Defensive MVP??

Thursday, October 13, 2011

[+/-]

MRE - Measure of Random Events through week 5

[+/-]

NFL QBR Differential after week 5

Saturday, October 8, 2011

[+/-]

Joe's numbers, and the moral of the story

Thursday, October 6, 2011

[+/-]

Appreciating how the Old Ones played. Or: Joe Namath in the 2000s, continuing...

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

[+/-]

Appreciating how the Old Ones played. Or: Joe Namath in the 2000s.

[+/-]

MRE - Measure of Random Events through week 4

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

[+/-]

Luck points through week 3

Sunday, September 25, 2011

[+/-]

Luck Points for the New Season

Monday, September 12, 2011

[+/-]

Nearly Impossible to Pick the RAVENS PLAYER OF THE GAME

Thursday, September 8, 2011

[+/-]

Dispatches From the Anti-League: #1

Thursday, July 7, 2011

[+/-]

Completing Short Passes in Playoffs

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

[+/-]

Fixing the ELO ratings system

Saturday, February 12, 2011

[+/-]

Balanced teams have higher EPA and win more games

Saturday, February 5, 2011

[+/-]

Defense wins Championships ...

Friday, February 4, 2011

[+/-]

Packers and Steelers fans, enjoy this Sunday

Saturday, January 29, 2011

[+/-]

Does "the law of diminishing returns" apply to passing?

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

[+/-]

Passing in the Post Season

Sunday, January 23, 2011

[+/-]

Eight Football Stats I Hate and why the professional pundits put so much effort into selling them to us.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

[+/-]

Luck point through the Divisional Playoffs

Monday, January 17, 2011

[+/-]

Belichick’s Overlooked Blunder

Thursday, January 13, 2011

[+/-]

An Example of TWP Calculation

[+/-]

Win Probability and Point Differential

[+/-]

Why Does WP Start at Zero? (And what can we do about it?)

[+/-]

Generalizing Matchup Win Probability

[+/-]

Combining Information About Winning

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

[+/-]

Final "BigWin%" Ratings for 2010, Looking to the Playoffs

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

[+/-]

YAC may be a Quarterbacking Skill

[+/-]

Total team luck points through the playoffs

Monday, January 10, 2011

[+/-]

It Could've Been Worse, Saints and Giants Fans

Sunday, January 9, 2011

[+/-]

Completion rates aren't the complete story

[+/-]

Probability Isoclines in the WP Model

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

[+/-]

"Clutch” playoff teams

[+/-]

Total team luck points and no luck power through week 17

Monday, January 3, 2011

[+/-]

Quarterback Interceptions

Saturday, January 1, 2011

[+/-]

Kickoff or Receive?