## Wednesday, December 29, 2010

### Total team luck points through week 16

by Bruce D

Team luck points = (bad luck points)-(good luck points), so negative numbers are the luckiest For a more in-depth explanation of what "luck" points are, go to a previous post here. Luck is tracked to better analyze a team's true ability and to help predict results of upcoming games where some may not know what portion of a team's record and points performance was due to just luck.

Luck points are valued as follows:

Points for(+) the unlucky team, are the same amount of points against(-) the lucky team.

punts blocked=3
interceptions=2.5
fumbles lost=2.5
field goal miss/block=2.5
punt returns for a TD=4.5
ko returns for a TD=4.5

 Team All Season Last 3 Games Last 2 Games Last Game nwe -77.5 -32.5 -22.5 -17.5 atl -42 -7.5 -5 0 pit -30.5 -0.5 7 2.5 phi -29.5 5.5 5.5 7.5 tam -22.5 0 2.5 2.5 chi -21.5 -4.5 -14.5 0 gnb -18 -7.5 -7.5 -12.5 bal -17 -22 -10 -7.5 kan -17 -5 0 2.5 ari -16.5 -15 -2.5 -5 cle -10 12.5 7.5 7.5 ten -10 2.5 -2.5 -2.5 nyj -9.5 -7 -4.5 0 oak -7.5 0.5 -2 -7 stl 1 4.5 2 -0.5 ind 1.5 -3 2 7 hou 2 12 0 0 det 2 -7.5 -7.5 -7.5 sfo 4.5 -7.5 3 0.5 was 8 2.5 0 -5 buf 8 0 5 17.5 sea 10.5 13 2.5 -2.5 dal 11.5 0 0 5 nor 12.5 0 2.5 0 den 14.5 7.5 -5 0 car 19.5 -2.5 -5 -2.5 nyg 22 17 14.5 12.5 min 24.5 4.5 7 -7.5 cin 24.5 5 -2.5 -2.5 jac 37 7.5 10 5 sdg 50.5 5 0 2.5 mia 55 22.5 20 7.5

Note: Even with Atlanta's theoretical above average home advantage, and their theoretical clutch play, without their usual(3 points per game average) Atlanta lucks points, the Falcons failed to win when the luck points were even(see last game points above).

Regression to the NFL mean?

James said...

Shouldn't defensive touchdowns be considered lucky in addition to fumbles and interceptions?

Jim Glass said...

Something you might want to consider as a luck factor is dropped intereceptions. FOers has game charting data on this.

E.g., Mark Sanchez has had 13 possible interceptions dropped by defenders to "lead the league", while Eli Manning has had only 2 and Chad Henne only 1.

If Sanchez had had only 1 or 2 dropped the Jets would be buried with a losing record and he'd have the word "Bust" stamped on him in big red letters. If Manning and Henne had 13, Eli'd be having a great year having taken the Giants to the #1 seed, and Miami would have the Jets playoff spot.

I don't know how you'd figure this into your existing "interception luck" number, which it already affects, but considering it explicitly might help. Or not. Just a thought.

I like your whole concept, yet nailing down the full effects of luck is going to be quite a challenge!

Bruce D. said...

James, Jim

Yes, def tds are next on the list to bump points up a little higher for the category it happened in(int, fumble etc..) for now they're all averaged in.

My goal is to try to track what luck type things actually happened to change the game point-wise, not what should have happened.

Dropped ints are considered(and are the same in game consequence) as a pass not caught. Like-wise a fumble recovered by the fumbler is treated like(and is the same in game consequence) a tackle.

Yes its quite a challenge and will be expanded.