Playoff QBs Who Carry Their Teams – And Teams That Carry Their QBs

by Jim Glass
Just a few playoff game performances can earn a quarterback fame or blame forever. But how well is it deserved?
How often does a "winning" playoff QB actually play so poorly as to deserve to lose, only to be bailed out by his teammates (or good fortune)? How often do "losing" QBs play well enough to deserve to win, only to be done in by their teammates (and bad luck)?
How well do QB reputations for being great clutch winners or choking losers correspond to their actual performance in the playoffs?
To see, I looked at the last 15 years of playoff games, 1995 thru 2009.

Examining QB "Yards after Catch"

by Adam Tarr

One stat that remains frustratingly difficult to find is Yards After the Catch, or YAC. Unless you're reading a gamebook from a Buffalo Bills home game, it's rare that you will find any recorded information about a game that details how much distance each pass travelled through the air, and how much distance was covered by the receiver after the catch. This information is significant, because as Brian has mentioned in the past, the evidence suggests that receivers deserve the lion's share of the credit for YAC.

Season-by-season YAC numbers for receivers can be found for all active receivers on a few sites, but YAC numbers organized by quarterback are even harder to find. The best I've found is stats.com, which lists the top 20 QBs by YAC in each conference for each season from 2006 to 2010.

Total team luck points through week 16

by Bruce D

Team luck points = (bad luck points)-(good luck points), so negative numbers are the luckiest For a more in-depth explanation of what "luck" points are, go to a previous post here. Luck is tracked to better analyze a team's true ability and to help predict results of upcoming games where some may not know what portion of a team's record and points performance was due to just luck.

What portion of “luck” is skill? (Maybe Atlanta IS that good!?)

by Bruce D

There have been some recent discussions at the Advanced NFL Stats main web-site concerning Atlanta and San Diego, with varying theories about how much luck is involved in their current win records. In a nut-shell, its why is San Diego's win record so much lower than their GWP, and why is Atlanta's win record so much better than their GWP. One of the prevailing theories is its due to bad and good luck(turnovers etc.). The other theory is poor or efficient coaching/skill.

Maybe its a combination of both. But what ratio? To try to answer this I looked for consistency with “luck” in each game, for each team this season.

Play by Play Data for the 2010 Season - Week 12

John Candido is compiling play by play data on a weekly basis for all to share. You can download the data from John's site or you can use the links below.

Week 1	Week 7
Week 2	Week 8
Week 3	Week 9
Week 4	Week 10
Week 5	Week 11
Week 6	Week 12

Some random thoughts on overtime

by Ian Simcox

I’ve finally got round to making some use of the play-by-play data Brian’s made available. As a nice simple starter, I thought I’d take a look at win probabilities for teams in overtime. The graph below shows the win probabilities for a team with the ball and a first and 10/goal from various yard lines.

"BigWin%" Looks At the Coming Playoffs

by Jim Glass

First, a bit of explanation of why anyone might care about the charts below.

A little while back I looked at the playoff performance of the 100 teams over the last 15 years with season records of 11-5 or better. The nine teams with the best records in close games (decided by 10 or fewer points) during the regular season, winning nine or more, in the playoffs went only 8-9. That may not be surprising to those who believe close games are determined mostly by luck. But the seven teams with the worst losing records in close games dominated in the playoffs, going 14-4 and winning three Super Bowls. That was a surprise.

Yet on reflection it shouldn't have been -- nothing else seems possible, given a key fact reported on this site: half of all NFL games are decided by luck.

Say a 10-6 record is needed to make the playoffs and two teams do it. In each's 16-game schedule eight games are determined by luck and eight by merit. Team A is a bit lucky and two of its "luck" games switch to wins, so it goes 6-2 in them (instead of 4-4). In its "merit" games it need go only 4-4, 50%, for its 10-6. But Team B is a bit unlucky and two of its "luck" games switch to losses, so it goes 2-6 in them. It has to be powerful enough to go 8-0 in its "merit" games, 100%, to get to 10-6.

Head-to-head, Team B should score 75% against Team A in spite of their equal 10-6 records, because on the merits it is a 100-0 team playing a 50-50 team. (In four games versus A it should go 2-0 on merit and 1-1 on luck.)

Total team luck points through week 15

by Bruce D

Team luck points = (bad luck points)-(good luck points), so negative numbers are the luckiest
For a more in-depth explanation of what "luck" points are, go to a previous post here.
Luck is tracked to better analyze a team's true ability and to help predict results of upcoming games where some may not know what portion of a team's record and points performance was due to just luck.

Luck points are valued as follows:

Points for(+) the unlucky team, are the same amount of points against(-) the lucky team.
punts blocked=3
interceptions=2.5
fumbles lost=2.5
field goal miss/block=2.5
punt returns for a TD=4.5
ko returns for a TD=4.5

Are short-passing QBs the secret to NFL success?

By Steven Buzzard

After watching the Pats dismantle yet another team (as well as moving to #1 on advancednflstats offense ranking) I was curious if more teams should use a dink and dunk passing attack like the Pats have used almost exclusively this year. Could other teams pull off a similar feat? Does the Pats offense go against the idea that deep passes aren't being used enough despite their higher EPA? Is an accurate QB like Brady the most important ingredient? Or are quick WR's like Welker and Woodhead required so they can get a lot of YAC?

First of all I wanted to verify that the Pats were in fact throwing as short as it seemed which they were ranking 3rd lowest in deep%. Next I wanted to figure out what was really making the offense go. But there weren't really stats out there that took into consideration depth of pass. So I tried to create a few new stats that would adjust for scheme.

Total team luck points through week 14

by Bruce D
(Team luck points = (bad luck points)-(good luck points), so negative numbers are the luckiest)
For a more in-depth explanation of what "luck" points are, go to a previous post here.
Luck is tracked to better analyze a team's true ability and to help in predicting results of upcoming games where some may not know what portion of a team's record and points performance was due to just luck.

Overtime Revisited

by Denis O'Regan.

With nine seconds remaining in the 4th during week 14 Washington were a point adrift of Tampa Bay with the extra point to come. Redskins had two options.They could kick the extra point and take their chances in almost certain overtime or go for the 2 point conversion and try to win the game there and then.

In researching the post "A Game of two Halves",posted last year,I looked at how teams fared in overtime.I specifically looked to see if the pregame chances of the teams carried over into overtime.This involved producing pre game probabilties for over 300 games that have gone to overtime since 1989.I then grouped the games into batches where the home team had a similar probability of winning the game at the outset.

For example there were 42 OT games where the home side had about a 59% chance of winning the game before a ball was kicked.Of those 42 games the pre game favourite went on to win the game in overtime on 23 occasions.Just under 55%.Similarly,home teams having a pregame win probability of just 25% who managed to take the game to OT went on to win 33% of the time in sudden death.

Win Probabilities and Points

by Bruce D

There are many win probability tables published each week for upcoming NFL games that calculate the percentage chance of each team to win versus another. Perhaps the best known to visitors of Advanced NFL Stats is the weekly probabilities at The Fifth Down.

I've seen several comments about these types of probability charts asking how the win probability percentage equates to points(margin of victory). I've yet to find a reply to any of these, so I did some analysis in this regard using data for the last 6 NFL seasons, 2004-2009.

This analysis used points based on completed games by adding various points to each team's score, and then calculating the percentage of the games a team would win if given the extra points.

Field Goal Percentage vs Expected

By James Deyerle

Everyone knows that distance matters when it comes to field goals. After all, late in close games the broadcasters will talk about the kicker’s ‘maximum range’ while showing him warming up on the sideline. Everyone can see the red line superimposed on the field and knows that leaving the game in the hands of the kicker for a 56-yard field goal is preposterous, but once you hit that magic number of 55 nothing but the sweet taste of victory is ahead… or at least a new kicker.

Sarcasm aside, distance is largely ignored. A kicker who makes eight of ten 50-yard field goals is clearly more valuable than another who made eight of ten 20-yarders, but they both have a field goal percentage of 80% and scored 24 points. This particular issue has bothered me recently because, as a Cowboys fan, I was tired of hearing about how many potential game-tying or winning field goals David Buehler had missed this season when it was obvious those kicks were longer than normal, not to mention sample size.

Do Good Teams Win Close Games? Part 2: Overtime Games

by Jim Glass

My obsession, er, interest in the role that luck plays in close games got a sudden endorphin boost a couple weeks ago when an "OT game" button appeared on PFR.com's Game Finder utility. Data on all the sudden death OT games ever played was sitting just mouse clicks away. Joy!

No game is closer than a tie going into sudden-death overtime, so how do strong teams perform against weak teams in OT games?

Luck Points - Week 13

By Bruce D


Team luck points = (bad luck points)-(good luck points), so negative numbers are the luckiest

For a more in-depth explanation of what "luck" points are, go to my previous post here.

I track luck to better analyze a team's true ability and to help in predicting results of upcoming games where many others may not know that part of a team's record and points performance was due to just luck.

Skinning the NFL cat

by Bruce D

We've all heard the saying "there's more than one way to skin a cat", and that's what I've attempted to do. Skin the same "cat" as Brian Burke attempts to, but in a totally different way.

In this case the "cat" is the value, power, efficiency, likely hood to win, whatever you want to call it, of each NFL team. As I see it, Mr. Burke uses sophisticated statistical analysis and analyzes pertinent information in pertinent situations, such as tracking the success and efficiency of individual plays outside of the "garbage time" and odd-ball situations during NFL games. He strives to "eliminate the noise" and get to the truth about a team's true ability to score points, prevent points, and win games.

How Effective is Mike Martz as a Coach?

by Karl Berthold

How much influence has Martz on teams he either coached as HC or OC? Does he deserve all the bad criticisms? Or is he one of the better coaches?

Let the numbers speak for themselves.
Most important is of course the W-L column. So i put those numbers in the 1st section. Then I considered the points scored rank, the total yards gained rank, and last but not least the Y/PP-Offense rank.

I examined team stats before the arrival of Martz, when he coached the team (either as HC or OC), and what happened after he left town. I took 3 years in advance, the whole time when he was with the team, and what happened the 3 years after Martz. I guess the numbers would be around the same if i took 5, 4 or 2 years.

Is Strength of Schedule real or imagined?

by Ian Simcox

In my time looking at NFL stats I’ve seen many comments along the lines that Strength of Schedule is something fans of losing teams moan about. “It doesn’t matter who you’re against”, they say, “you should just beat them”. But how much effect does SoS actually have? To begin to answer this, I have looked at the 2009 season.

I firstly need to use some kind of rating system for each team, which I will then use to work out the win probabilities for each game. Once I know how the ratings turn into wins, I can compare each team’s actual schedule with a theoretical ‘average’ schedule (which I’ve defined as playing a game against each team, including self) to see how many expected wins are gained/lost from having different opponents.

Is the "Close Game - Clutch Play" Story Backwards?

by Jim Glass

Do Teams that Lose Clutch Games The Win More in the Playoffs -- and that Win Clutch Games, Lose More?

"Great teams win close games" they say. If so, the Falcons are sitting pretty. But is it true? Does winning close games during the regular season foretell victory in the playoffs? Being a sports stats geek I thought I knew -- but before running the numbers I had no idea the answer is both so counter-intuitive and stark.

The argument: To win close games takes clutch play, and it is clutch play that shows the skill and character a team needs to win tough games on the way to a championship. Think of Joe Montana throwing "the pass". Everyone knows this, it is common sense. So winning close games in the regular season gives confidence in post-season success.

But wait, says the sports stats geek, it's not so obvious. If team B thumps the same opponents that team A does by bigger margins, the larger scores it runs up shows it's better than A. That's common sense too.

Randomness and Luck - Week 12

by Bruce D.


Further to trying to identify teams who have results which are lucky here is more luck data as generated by Bruce D. An explanation of how luck is defined and calculated can be found here.
At this stage of the analysis, here is the raw data only and you are left to draw your own conclusions.

Luck points=Bad luck points - good luck points(negative numbers are the
luckiest)

Randomness and Luck

by Bruce D
Here's some data showing the randomness and luck referenced in a post by Bruce D. (me) concerning "What's the Deal with the Falcons?" on Advanced NFL Stats.
My version of luck is similar to Brian Burke's version in that we're both seeking to find the randomness in the NFL, yet its very different in that Mr. Burke calculates expected wins based on team ability, and the difference between expected wins and reality is considered "luck".
My version of "luck" calculations look at each "luck" type play and assigns points (good+ or bad-) associated with each of these individual plays. In each of these cases, the good luck team gains luck points, and their opponent losses the same amount of luck points. Here is an excerpt from my humble web-site as to what I've deemed as at least partially lucky plays:

Play by Play Data for the 2010 Season

John Candido is compiling play by play data on a weekly basis for all to share. You can download the data from John's site or you can use the links below.

Week 1	Week 7
Week 2	Week 8
Week 3	Week 9
Week 4	Week 10
Week 5	Week 11
Week 6	Week 12

Surviving in a Suicide League - Week 9

By Chris Alan

Big games for the Saints and Packers bringing respect back to the NFC. There’s been lots of talk this season about the AFC continuing their dominance over the NFC in cross conference games. Instead, last week two of the AFC powerhouses were dismantled, Steelers and Jets respectively. For the season the AFC is winning 20-15 with 29 games remaining, so its likely the AFC will end up with the better record, but both those wins were pivotal for the two most popular NFC Super Bowl picks who currently have winning records (Cowboys and Vikings, I’m looking at you).

Interesting Stat: Since the beginning of the 2008 season, half of the Detroit Lions wins have come against the Washington Redskins. They did play in 2008, but I doubt thats any consolation now for Redskins fans.

Surviving in a Suicide League - Week 8

By Chris Alan

By the time the Ravens and Bills were playing in overtime last week I was rooting for Buffalo to pull off the upset and make me a 2008 Detroit Lions-esq perfect 0-4 in my picks. Personally I think it was a horrible call by the refs to allow a ball carrier to be picked up from the ground, carried backwards and get stripped from the ball. Or maybe I just don’t understand the point of forward progress, but either way I pulled out my first Pick of the Week win. Off to Vegas I go.

In previous years I could at least convince myself that I knew what was going on, but at least no one else seems to know what direction most teams are heading in this topsy turvy year for the NFL. Last week the only team to outscore the Kansas City Chiefs were the Oakland Raiders. Amazing.

Interception and counter-momentum?

by Andy Steiner

David Romer considers momentum in his paper “Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Professional Football”. In this study he looks at very good plays and very bad plays, and then the next three plays in an attempt to quantify momentum. He finds that there is no significant momentum effect (actually it goes in the reverse direction, the team that did poorly did slightly better than average on the next play). I wanted to look at a very similar effect; the momentum value of interceptions. I wanted to see how much more likely, in terms of actual points the intercepting team was to score. What I found definitely surprised me, although I should have seen it coming.

To see if interceptions have some extra effect, besides just the obvious value of taking the ball away from your opponent, I will simply compare the expected (actual) point curve for drives starting normally “normal starting”; and drives starting from interceptions.

Surviving in a Suicide League - Week 7

by Chris Alan

My Apologies to Chris. I was away and did not have access to the web until I'd returned this morning.

Another week, another Pick of the Week loss. The way the Cowboys were playing early I was expecting another underdog win, but alas they found yet another way to beat themselves. There’s a very interesting article by Brian Burke, the founder of advancednflstats.com, regarding the dire position the Chargers are in despite their impressive offensive stats. This week I’m going to work the right side of my brain to see if I can figure out any insight into the dismal Cowboys.

But enough of the loser talk, the pundants who get paid for their opinions don’t let being wrong again and again and again stop them, and neither shall I. Time to crack open a beer, pull out the dictionary, and write down my opinions about the upcoming games. Now on to this weeks conjecture:

Surviving in a Suicide League - Week 6

by Chris Alan

First, a quote from Jerome Bettis writing for Sports Illustrated (.com), “It's hard to say who the best team in the NFL is, but it's not coming from the NFC.”

My pre-season Super Bowl teams were the Green Bay Packers versus the Baltimore Ravens. In the AFC picture I still really like the Ravens but am starting to jump on the Jets bandwagon, and the Steelers are also making things interesting. Those are my front runners to earn a bye week heading into the Playoffs

On the flip side, there’s no compelling team in the NFC. Green Bay is hurting, though still capable. The Atlanta Falcons are making me wish I knew more about them, it’ll be interesting to see them play the Philadelphia Eagles this week. The NFC East race is still wide open and full of teams known for late season revivals.

Surviving in a Suicide League

We have a new contributor in Chris Alan who is offering his thoughts about how to play a survivor league. Chris plans on contributing on a weekly basis.


How to Pick in an Elimination Pool (a.k.a. Survivor, Knock Out or Suicide.) Week 5 Edition.

These are my favorite leagues to get into, and unfortunately the one I had so much success with over the past few years folded in the off season, and I didn't find another in time. However, I still feel like analyzing the season, and will post weekly breakdowns of games.

My analysis will follow the same rules I used for my previous league. You get two losses before you're out for the season. Tiebreaker adds up the spread points, the person with the lowest number of spread points wins. A tie is not a loss, thank you Donovan McNabb and the Philadelphia Eagles against Kansas City two years ago for not loosing. Unfortunately K.C. came back to haunt me last year in beating the Pittsburg Steelers in week 11 as the Steelers went on to loose to the worst teams on their schedule.

Passing equals winning: Another way of looking at it

by Andy Steiner

In this analysis I wanted to see if there was any relationship between simply choosing to pass and winning. There have been many similar studies about this before, but I wanted look at it from a slightly different perspective. Brian Burke of this site has written the article “Offenses Run Too Often on 1st Down” which looks at the passing advantage from an expected point (EP) analysis. There seems to be an advantage by simply choosing to pass, but there is some wiggle room to that analysis because we can’t prove that EP is a perfect measure of utility. It is my opinion that it is a very good measure of utility as used in the above mentioned study; in the first and third quarters and when the score is within 10 points (which I think that would be an interesting study for another time if it hasn’t already been done!). I wanted to look at the direct effect on winning. If we can do this then some common arguments like “controlling the clock”, “keeping the opposing quarterback off the field”, and “tiring out the defense” lose a lot of credibility.

Essentially, this study is based on Brian Burke’s passing Expected Points Added (EPA) studies; I wanted to see if the situations where there was a known delta between passing and running (where passing was better) would relate to teams actually winning.

An Analysis of Placekicker Salary Distribution in the NFL

This contribution comes from the desk of Dan Schlauch.

Abstract:

The importance of an effective kicking game in the NFL is undeniable. Kickers are regularly the highest scoring players on a team and are repeatedly asked to perform in key situations of high stakes. The difference between the best performing kicker (Janikowski) and the worst performing kicker (Brown) in 2009 totaled over 35 points, which would likely make the difference in several games. Additionally, the mean salary of kickers was the lowest in the NFL at just over $1.5 million.

However, despite these considerations, this analysis shows that kickers receive a disproportionately high percentage of team salary and that money spent on kickers has a startlingly low return on investment.

Re-Launch: Community 2.0

About a year and a half ago, I launched Advanced NFL Stats Community, a site where anyone could contribute a post. It received a few dozen submissions, some more interesting than others, and it was a great start. Unfortunately, the time I devoted to reformatting the articles and their tables of data took away time I wanted to spend on other projects. I decided to gradually let the site fade into the background.

But one of my goals continues to be helping building a collaborative community of football stat heads without “premium” content or “proprietary” black-box stats, and I’d like to offer readers a platform for sharing ideas and analysis. In the recent off-season, I completed a long-standing goal of building an open NFL play-by-play database suitable for research and making available to everyone. Immediately, readers started parsing the data, adding fields for various things, and  sharing their insights in the comments section of the post.