## Wednesday, September 28, 2011

### Luck points through week 3

by Bruce D.

Team luck points = (good luck points)-(bad luck points), so positive numbers are the luckiest teams. Please note that this is change from previous posts where negative numbers were used for the luckiest teams.

Please note: In a predictive situation, past "good luck" can be bad for a team in the future, and past "bad luck" can be good(luck is NOT repeatable).

For a more in-depth explanation of what "luck" points are, go to a previous post here.

Luck is tracked to help analyze a team's true ability and to predict results of upcoming games where some may not know what portion of a team's record and points performance was due to just luck.

Points for(+) the lucky team, are the same amount of points against(-) the unlucky team.

Luck points are valued as follows:

punts blocked=3
interceptions=2.5
fumbles lost=2.5
field goal miss/block=2.5
punt returns for a TD=4.5
ko returns for a TD=4.5

 Team All Season Last 2 Games Last Game ARI -3 -5 -7.5 ATL -2.5 2.5 -2.5 BAL 12.5 -5 -2.5 BUF 12.5 5 5 CAR -7 -5 2.5 CHI 5 0 0 CIN 0 -2.5 -7.5 CLE 5 7.5 5 DAL -8 -2.5 2.5 DEN -8 -5 0 DET 17.5 15 0 GB 10 7.5 0 HOU 17 12.5 2.5 IND 0.5 5 7.5 JAC -5 -7.5 -2.5 KC -22.5 -15 0 MIA -12.5 -15 -5 MIN 7 0 0 NO -5 -2.5 -2.5 NE 2.5 5 -5 NYG 10 10 7.5 NYJ 5.5 0 -5 OAK 8 5 5 PHI -10 -12.5 -7.5 PIT -27.5 -10 -7.5 SD -17 -10 0 SEA -6.5 10 7.5 SF 29 12.5 7.5 STL -2.5 0 2.5 TB 0 2.5 2.5 TEN 0 2.5 0 WAS -5 -5 -2.5

Anonymous said...

"Please note that this is change from previous posts where negative numbers were used for the luckiest teams."

Thanks

James said...

I think Jets fans would consider last night's three turnover touchdowns to be unluckier than just 7.5 points.

Bruce D. said...

Hey James,

Very valid point.

I also have "luck" based on my version of EPA(which should show an actual value based on situation and outcome). If you'd like to see that as well, let me know.

Bruce D.