Do Good Teams Win Close Games? Part 2: Overtime Games

by Jim Glass

My obsession, er, interest in the role that luck plays in close games got a sudden endorphin boost a couple weeks ago when an "OT game" button appeared on PFR.com's Game Finder utility. Data on all the sudden death OT games ever played was sitting just mouse clicks away. Joy!

No game is closer than a tie going into sudden-death overtime, so how do strong teams perform against weak teams in OT games?

Luck Points - Week 13

By Bruce D


Team luck points = (bad luck points)-(good luck points), so negative numbers are the luckiest

For a more in-depth explanation of what "luck" points are, go to my previous post here.

I track luck to better analyze a team's true ability and to help in predicting results of upcoming games where many others may not know that part of a team's record and points performance was due to just luck.

Skinning the NFL cat

by Bruce D

We've all heard the saying "there's more than one way to skin a cat", and that's what I've attempted to do. Skin the same "cat" as Brian Burke attempts to, but in a totally different way.

In this case the "cat" is the value, power, efficiency, likely hood to win, whatever you want to call it, of each NFL team. As I see it, Mr. Burke uses sophisticated statistical analysis and analyzes pertinent information in pertinent situations, such as tracking the success and efficiency of individual plays outside of the "garbage time" and odd-ball situations during NFL games. He strives to "eliminate the noise" and get to the truth about a team's true ability to score points, prevent points, and win games.

How Effective is Mike Martz as a Coach?

by Karl Berthold

How much influence has Martz on teams he either coached as HC or OC? Does he deserve all the bad criticisms? Or is he one of the better coaches?

Let the numbers speak for themselves.
Most important is of course the W-L column. So i put those numbers in the 1st section. Then I considered the points scored rank, the total yards gained rank, and last but not least the Y/PP-Offense rank.

I examined team stats before the arrival of Martz, when he coached the team (either as HC or OC), and what happened after he left town. I took 3 years in advance, the whole time when he was with the team, and what happened the 3 years after Martz. I guess the numbers would be around the same if i took 5, 4 or 2 years.

Is Strength of Schedule real or imagined?

by Ian Simcox

In my time looking at NFL stats I’ve seen many comments along the lines that Strength of Schedule is something fans of losing teams moan about. “It doesn’t matter who you’re against”, they say, “you should just beat them”. But how much effect does SoS actually have? To begin to answer this, I have looked at the 2009 season.

I firstly need to use some kind of rating system for each team, which I will then use to work out the win probabilities for each game. Once I know how the ratings turn into wins, I can compare each team’s actual schedule with a theoretical ‘average’ schedule (which I’ve defined as playing a game against each team, including self) to see how many expected wins are gained/lost from having different opponents.

Is the "Close Game - Clutch Play" Story Backwards?

by Jim Glass

Do Teams that Lose Clutch Games The Win More in the Playoffs -- and that Win Clutch Games, Lose More?

"Great teams win close games" they say. If so, the Falcons are sitting pretty. But is it true? Does winning close games during the regular season foretell victory in the playoffs? Being a sports stats geek I thought I knew -- but before running the numbers I had no idea the answer is both so counter-intuitive and stark.

The argument: To win close games takes clutch play, and it is clutch play that shows the skill and character a team needs to win tough games on the way to a championship. Think of Joe Montana throwing "the pass". Everyone knows this, it is common sense. So winning close games in the regular season gives confidence in post-season success.

But wait, says the sports stats geek, it's not so obvious. If team B thumps the same opponents that team A does by bigger margins, the larger scores it runs up shows it's better than A. That's common sense too.

Randomness and Luck - Week 12

by Bruce D.


Further to trying to identify teams who have results which are lucky here is more luck data as generated by Bruce D. An explanation of how luck is defined and calculated can be found here.
At this stage of the analysis, here is the raw data only and you are left to draw your own conclusions.

Luck points=Bad luck points - good luck points(negative numbers are the
luckiest)