How Effective is Mike Martz as a Coach?

by Karl Berthold

How much influence has Martz on teams he either coached as HC or OC? Does he deserve all the bad criticisms? Or is he one of the better coaches?

Let the numbers speak for themselves.
Most important is of course the W-L column. So i put those numbers in the 1st section. Then I considered the points scored rank, the total yards gained rank, and last but not least the Y/PP-Offense rank.

I examined team stats before the arrival of Martz, when he coached the team (either as HC or OC), and what happened after he left town. I took 3 years in advance, the whole time when he was with the team, and what happened the 3 years after Martz. I guess the numbers would be around the same if i took 5, 4 or 2 years.

Is Strength of Schedule real or imagined?

by Ian Simcox

In my time looking at NFL stats I’ve seen many comments along the lines that Strength of Schedule is something fans of losing teams moan about. “It doesn’t matter who you’re against”, they say, “you should just beat them”. But how much effect does SoS actually have? To begin to answer this, I have looked at the 2009 season.

I firstly need to use some kind of rating system for each team, which I will then use to work out the win probabilities for each game. Once I know how the ratings turn into wins, I can compare each team’s actual schedule with a theoretical ‘average’ schedule (which I’ve defined as playing a game against each team, including self) to see how many expected wins are gained/lost from having different opponents.

Is the "Close Game - Clutch Play" Story Backwards?

by Jim Glass

Do Teams that Lose Clutch Games The Win More in the Playoffs -- and that Win Clutch Games, Lose More?

"Great teams win close games" they say. If so, the Falcons are sitting pretty. But is it true? Does winning close games during the regular season foretell victory in the playoffs? Being a sports stats geek I thought I knew -- but before running the numbers I had no idea the answer is both so counter-intuitive and stark.

The argument: To win close games takes clutch play, and it is clutch play that shows the skill and character a team needs to win tough games on the way to a championship. Think of Joe Montana throwing "the pass". Everyone knows this, it is common sense. So winning close games in the regular season gives confidence in post-season success.

But wait, says the sports stats geek, it's not so obvious. If team B thumps the same opponents that team A does by bigger margins, the larger scores it runs up shows it's better than A. That's common sense too.

Randomness and Luck - Week 12

by Bruce D.


Further to trying to identify teams who have results which are lucky here is more luck data as generated by Bruce D. An explanation of how luck is defined and calculated can be found here.
At this stage of the analysis, here is the raw data only and you are left to draw your own conclusions.

Luck points=Bad luck points - good luck points(negative numbers are the
luckiest)

Randomness and Luck

by Bruce D
Here's some data showing the randomness and luck referenced in a post by Bruce D. (me) concerning "What's the Deal with the Falcons?" on Advanced NFL Stats.
My version of luck is similar to Brian Burke's version in that we're both seeking to find the randomness in the NFL, yet its very different in that Mr. Burke calculates expected wins based on team ability, and the difference between expected wins and reality is considered "luck".
My version of "luck" calculations look at each "luck" type play and assigns points (good+ or bad-) associated with each of these individual plays. In each of these cases, the good luck team gains luck points, and their opponent losses the same amount of luck points. Here is an excerpt from my humble web-site as to what I've deemed as at least partially lucky plays:

Play by Play Data for the 2010 Season

John Candido is compiling play by play data on a weekly basis for all to share. You can download the data from John's site or you can use the links below.

Week 1	Week 7
Week 2	Week 8
Week 3	Week 9
Week 4	Week 10
Week 5	Week 11
Week 6	Week 12

Surviving in a Suicide League - Week 9

By Chris Alan

Big games for the Saints and Packers bringing respect back to the NFC. There’s been lots of talk this season about the AFC continuing their dominance over the NFC in cross conference games. Instead, last week two of the AFC powerhouses were dismantled, Steelers and Jets respectively. For the season the AFC is winning 20-15 with 29 games remaining, so its likely the AFC will end up with the better record, but both those wins were pivotal for the two most popular NFC Super Bowl picks who currently have winning records (Cowboys and Vikings, I’m looking at you).

Interesting Stat: Since the beginning of the 2008 season, half of the Detroit Lions wins have come against the Washington Redskins. They did play in 2008, but I doubt thats any consolation now for Redskins fans.