NFL Team snapshots - Week 6
by Tom McDermott
(This submission of a repost and can be found at its original home here. ED)
I've added a few more things to the Snapshots this week, namely, correlation values. I thought it might be interesting to see how the various Expected Points totals correlate with Margin of Victory and Win Percentage. For those of you unfamiliar with correlation (I know I was until I started getting into all this stat stuff): a correlation of 1.0 is perfect correlation, a correlation of 0.0 is no relationship. As far as Win Percentage, it makes sense that the offense and defense EPA correlations are the same - the way EPA works, for every point gained on offense, there is a point lost on defense (or vice versa). But I was surprised to see the higher Special Teams correlation. I'm not sure this means anything yet - the numbers will most likely regress as the season goes on. But it is interesting to note that the top three teams in terms of Margin of Victory - Denver, Kansas City, and Seattle - also have the top three special teams EPA scores.
The following table shows EPA values per game through Week 6. Click on the table headers to sort. Enjoy.
KEY:
MOV: Margin of Victory ([points scored - points allowed]/games played)
EPA: Total Expected Points Added (offense + defense + special teams + penalties)
OFF: Offensive EPA (not including penalties)
DEF: Defensive EPA (not including penalties)
SPT: Special Teams EPA (kicking, punting and field goal plays)
PNLTY: Penalties EPA (penalties for - penalties against)
WIN COR: Correlation to W/L percentage
MOV COR: Correlation to Margin of Victory
| TEAM | W/L% | MOV | EPA | OFF | DEF | SPT | PNLTY |
| ARI | 0.500 | -2.7 | -1.9 | -5.1 | 2.1 | 1.6 | -0.4 |
| ATL* | 0.200 | -2.4 | -1.2 | 10.2 | -10.3 | -2.2 | 1.1 |
| BAL | 0.500 | 0.8 | 0.7 | -3.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| BUF | 0.333 | -3.5 | -4.1 | -3.4 | 0.4 | -2.2 | 1.1 |
| CAR* | 0.400 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 3.1 | -0.3 | 0.8 |
| CHI | 0.667 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | -0.7 | -2.3 |
| CIN | 0.667 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.6 | -1.6 | -0.3 |
| CLE | 0.500 | -1.2 | -0.6 | -0.2 | 2.7 | -0.3 | -2.8 |
| DAL | 0.500 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 7.3 | -3.8 | 2.6 | -1.2 |
| DEN | 1.000 | 17.8 | 19.7 | 20.1 | -4.6 | 4.4 | -0.2 |
| DET | 0.667 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 4.1 | -1.6 | -0.2 | 0.1 |
| GB* | 0.600 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 9.2 | -4.9 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| HOU | 0.333 | -11.8 | -11.6 | -5.2 | -2.7 | -3.4 | -0.2 |
| IND | 0.667 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 7.1 | -1.2 | 0.2 | 1.9 |
| JAC | 0.000 | -21.3 | -22.0 | -12.6 | -7.4 | 0.3 | -2.2 |
| KC | 1.000 | 14.5 | 14.6 | -1.8 | 10.2 | 5.8 | 0.4 |
| MIA* | 0.600 | -0.6 | -0.3 | 1.0 | -4.6 | 3.0 | 0.3 |
| MIN* | 0.200 | -6.6 | -7.6 | 1.0 | -8.3 | -0.3 | 0.0 |
| NE | 0.833 | 4.7 | 5.4 | -2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.9 |
| NO | 0.833 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 0.7 | 1.6 | -0.4 |
| NYG | 0.000 | -17.7 | -19.6 | -8.4 | -7.4 | -5.3 | 1.6 |
| NYJ | 0.500 | -5.2 | -7.0 | -3.7 | 0.9 | -0.9 | -3.3 |
| OAK | 0.333 | -4.5 | -4.9 | -0.6 | -2.5 | 0.0 | -1.8 |
| PHI | 0.500 | -2.2 | -2.8 | 9.7 | -4.3 | -3.8 | -0.8 |
| PIT* | 0.200 | -5.6 | -6.8 | -2.6 | -4.3 | -1.4 | 1.4 |
| SAD | 0.500 | 1.0 | -0.8 | 7.8 | -9.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| SAF | 0.667 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 0.3 | -0.4 |
| SEA | 0.833 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.8 | -1.8 |
| STL | 0.500 | -2.2 | -1.8 | -1.4 | -5.5 | 1.6 | 3.6 |
| TB* | 0.000 | -7.4 | -8.2 | -5.5 | 0.5 | -2.1 | -1.1 |
| TEN | 0.500 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 2.6 | -1.2 | 0.2 |
| WAS* | 0.200 | -7.2 | -8.4 | 3.5 | -5.7 | -6.2 | 0.0 |
| AVG | 0.500 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 1.6 | -1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WIN COR | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.71 | 0.05 | |
| MOV COR | 0.71 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.13 |