by Tom McDermott
(This submission of a repost and can be found at its original home here. ED)
I've added a few more things to the Snapshots this week, namely, correlation values. I thought it might be interesting to see how the various Expected Points totals correlate with Margin of Victory and Win Percentage. For those of you unfamiliar with correlation (I know I was until I started getting into all this stat stuff): a correlation of 1.0 is perfect correlation, a correlation of 0.0 is no relationship. As far as Win Percentage, it makes sense that the offense and defense EPA correlations are the same - the way EPA works, for every point gained on offense, there is a point lost on defense (or vice versa). But I was surprised to see the higher Special Teams correlation. I'm not sure this means anything yet - the numbers will most likely regress as the season goes on. But it is interesting to note that the top three teams in terms of Margin of Victory - Denver, Kansas City, and Seattle - also have the top three special teams EPA scores.
The following table shows EPA values per game through Week 6. Click on the table headers to sort. Enjoy.
MOV: Margin of Victory ([points scored - points allowed]/games played)
EPA: Total Expected Points Added (offense + defense + special teams + penalties)
OFF: Offensive EPA (not including penalties)
DEF: Defensive EPA (not including penalties)
SPT: Special Teams EPA (kicking, punting and field goal plays)
PNLTY: Penalties EPA (penalties for - penalties against)
WIN COR: Correlation to W/L percentage
MOV COR: Correlation to Margin of Victory