Thursday, October 13, 2011

MRE - Measure of Random Events through week 5

by Bruce D

MRE = (good luck points)-(bad luck points), so positive numbers are the luckiest teams.

For a more in-depth explanation of what "luck" points are, go to a previous post here.

If random events can't be repeated, then past points due to MRE can NOT be considered as being due to skill. Likewise, past performance due to MRE can't be included in analyzing future performance. In a nutshell, "lucky" teams can't be expected to be so "lucky", and "unlucky" teams are better than we may think.

Points for(+) the lucky team, are the same amount of points against(-) the unlucky team.

MRE is valued as follows:

punts blocked=3
fumbles lost=2.5
field goal miss/block=2.5
punt returns for a TD=4.5
ko returns for a TD=4.5

TeamAll SeasonLast 2 GamesLast Game


Anonymous said...

What about interception returns for tds. That is very unlucky while interceptions can be repeatable.

snarksd said...

Do you have cronbach's alpha or kappa stats for these stats? I would be interested in their reliability.

Unknown said...

How about non-surprise onside kicks? Maybe too few of them, but that can basically be a game-winning play that is a complete fluke (see the Broncos :))

Anonymous said...

Interesting numbers although I'm not sure if I agree that all of these things should be classified under the header of "random events". For instance, the 49ers defensive line putting pressure on Colt McCoy caused him to make an errant throw on Sunday resulting in an interception. The interception was a function of excellent play calling and sound defense rather than mere chance. I fail to understand how plays like that aren't repeatable.

Statalyzer said...

Big misnomer. Just because something is a poor predicter of the event happening in a future game does not mean it wasn't the result of skill.

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