## Tuesday, October 4, 2011

### MRE - Measure of Random Events through week 4

by Bruce D

MRE = (good luck points)-(bad luck points), so positive numbers are the luckiest teams.

For a more in-depth explanation of what "luck" points are, go to a previous post here.

If random events can't be repeated, then past points due to MRE can NOT be considered as being due to skill. Likewise, past performance due to MRE can't be included in analyzing future performance. In a nutshell, "lucky" teams can't be expected to be so "lucky", and "unlucky" teams are better than we may think.

Points for(+) the lucky team, are the same amount of points against(-) the unlucky team.

MRE is valued as follows:

punts blocked=3
interceptions=2.5
fumbles lost=2.5
field goal miss/block=2.5
punt returns for a TD=4.5
ko returns for a TD=4.5

 Team All Season Last 2 Games Last Game ARI -3 -7.5 0 ATL 5 5 7.5 BAL 10.5 -4.5 -2 BUF 17.5 10 5 CAR -16.5 -7 -9.5 CHI 14.5 9.5 9.5 CIN -5 -12.5 -5 CLE 5 5 0 DAL -13 -2.5 -5 DEN -13 -5 -5 DET 22.5 5 5 GB 15 5 5 HOU 22 7.5 5 IND -2 5 -2.5 JAC 2.5 5 7.5 KC -20 2.5 2.5 MIA -17.5 -10 -5 MIN 4.5 -2.5 -2.5 NO -12.5 -10 -7.5 NE 7.5 0 5 NYG 10 7.5 0 NYJ 7.5 -3 2 OAK 3 0 -5 PHI -15 -12.5 -5 PIT -32.5 -12.5 -5 SD -12 5 5 SEA -14 0 -7.5 SF 34 12.5 5 STL 0 5 2.5 TB 2.5 5 2.5 TEN 0 0 0 WAS -7.5 -5 -2.5

Brian Burke said...

Wow. Look at PIT.

Dave said...

Good stuff. One improvement could be to use EPA instead of the strict formula provided. For instance, a mid field interception or long missed field goal shouldn't count for as much as a short missed FG or a red zone interception.

Bruce D. said...

Dave,

Thanks.

Working on automating the EPA "luck" analysis.

James said...

Bruce, following up last week's comment, yes, I would like to see you include adjustments based on situation and results. Both for more luck points "awarded" for interception return TDs compared to regular interceptions, and potentially for location on the field (turnovers near either end zone more damaging then in the middle of the field).

Bruce D. said...

James,

As time permits you got it(hopefully soon).

Bruce D.