What Wins Championships?

by Derek Singer

Perhaps the oldest and most revered cliché in all of sports is “defense wins championships.” Play a drinking game based on commentators using that cliché, and you may be dead before the divisional round. Teams such as the 70s Steelers, 2000 Ravens, and 2002 Bucs are often trotted as proof. While the latter two certainly had great defenses backed up by mediocre offenses, the Steelers had several Hall of Famers on offense. The Steel Curtain was complemented with great running and passing attacks. “Smashmouth” football alone didn’t win. The 80’s 49ers were made famous by their West Coast Offense, one built on the passing game. The 90’s Cowboys were best known for the triple threat of QB Troy Aikman, WR Michael Irvin, and RB Emmit Smith. Both dynasties also had good defenses, however, during their championship seasons. The greatest teams, it would seem then, are the best balanced teams. They have good offenses and good defenses. In Football Outsiders’ Pro Football Prospectus 2006, they found that defense does indeed have a higher correlation with playoff success than offense. Correlation not being causation, we have to ask why offense would suddenly become less valuable in the postseason. How is the postseason different than the regular season? The competition is much better. If the proportion of teams with good offenses is higher in the postseason than in the regular season, then the only thing that will separate the best from the good is defense (and special teams to a lesser extent).

	Total Teams	Playoffs	Playoff %	Conf. Champs	Conf. Champ %	SB Champs	SB Champ %
pass off. >5%	167	115	68.86%	25	14.97%	13	7.78%
pass off. >10%	105	81	77.14%	19	18.10%	11	10.48%
pass off. >15%	60	49	81.67%	14	23.33%	7	11.67%
pass off. >20%	24	20	83.33%	7	29.17%	4	16.67%
run off. >5%	161	76	47.20%	14	8.70%	9	5.59%
run off. >10%	87	44	50.57%	9	10.34%	6	6.90%
run off. >15%	52	25	48.08%	4	7.69%	2	3.85%
run off. >20%	24	10	41.67%	3	12.50%	1	4.17%
pass def. >5%	158	101	63.92%	18	11.39%	11	6.96%
pass def. >10%	67	53	79.10%	11	16.42%	7	10.45%
pass def. >15%	21	17	80.95%	5	23.81%	4	19.05%
pass def. >20%	4	3	75.00%	1	25.00%	1	25.00%
run def. >5%	159	70	44.03%	19	11.95%	11	6.92%
run def. >10%	80	37	46.25%	10	12.50%	5	6.25%
run def. >15%	35	14	40.00%	4	11.43%	1	2.86%
run def. >20%	15	4	26.67%	2	13.33%	1	6.67%

This study uses data from the 1990-2007 seasons culled from pro-football-reference.com. The main statistic used is percentage over league average of yards per play. From year to year, the average yards gained per pass play hovers around 6, while the average for run plays stays around 4. So an offense gaining 6.6 yards per pass play would be around 10% over league average. A defense allowing 5.4 yards per pass play would be around 10% over league average (i.e. >0% means the defense is above average, <0%>10% above average, 11 won the Super Bowl (13.6%).
Of the 44 postseason teams with a run offense >10% above average, 6 won the Super Bowl (13.6%).
Of the 53 postseason teams with a pass defense >10% above average, 7 won the Super Bowl (13.2%).
Of the 37 postseason teams with a run defense >10% above average, 5 won the Super Bowl (13.5%).

	Avg.	Max.	Team with Max.	Min.	Team with Min.
Pass Off	11.197	30.739	STL 1999	-11.152	BAL 2000
Run Off	3.6846	22.536	STL 1999	-18.314	NE 2003
Pass Def	8.5432	22.304	TB 2002	-1.5238	NE 2001
Run Def	4.3924	34.174	BAL 2000	-28.287	IND 2006
Conf. Champions (% above league avg)	Avg.	Max.	Team with Max.	Min.	Team with Min.
Pass Off	10.804	34.146	STL 2001	-11.152	BAL 2000
Run Off	2.7994	22.536	STL 1999	-18.314	NE 2003
Pass Def	6.4548	22.304	TB 2002	-5.5967	TEN 1999
Run Def	4.3563	34.174	BAL 2000	-28.287	IND 2006
Playoff Teams (% above league avg)	Avg.	Max.	Team with Max.	Min.	Team with Min.
Pass Off	6.803	41.785	STL 2000	-17.34	TB 2005
Run Off	1.5066	38.559	DET 1997	-25.13	NE 1994
Pass Def	4.5736	22.904	NO 1992	-13.531	WAS 2005
Run Def	1.218	34.174	BAL 2000	-33.141	IND 2005

The second table shows that teams that make it deeper into the playoffs are better in all four phases of the game on average. All of the last 18 Super Bowl champions have been above average in at least one phase, with 15 being above average in three phases. Only one champion has been less than 5% above average in all phases of the game: the 2001 Patriots. Sixteen of the last 18 champions were at least 5% above average in two phases of the game. Ten have been at least 10% above average in 2 or 3 phases (none in all 4, seven in only 1). A team that excels in one area can make the playoffs. Championship teams, however, excel in more than one area. In general, they are balanced teams in that they are great at one or two things and terrible at very little. Only the 2001 Patriots were more than 5% below average in two phases (run offense and run defense).

Team	Seed	Pass Off	Run Off	Pass Def	Run Def
TEN	1	-4.93	2.94	15.09	11.37
PIT	2	-0.34	-12.63	28.03	21.71
MIA	3	13.00	0.70	-1.03	0.71
SD	4	23.30	-2.50	0.06	4.35
IND	5	6.91	-18.12	4.43	0.95
BAL	6	-0.93	-4.55	16.82	15.40
NYG	1	-1.15	19.29	4.66	5.55
CAR	2	16.53	14.99	7.11	-5.25
MIN	3	-0.09	6.86	0.59	21.16
ARI	4	13.34	-17.61	-4.60	5.73
ATL	5	17.43	3.75	1.88	-16.90
PHI	6	-1.41	-5.49	15.24	16.63

Applying these ideas to the 2008 playoffs, the Carolina Panthers emerge as the favorites to win it all. They are more than 5% above average in pass offense, run offense, and pass defense. Four of the other five NFC teams are more than 5% above average in two areas. The Steelers look like the favorites in the AFC, with an exceptional defense and average passing game. Baltimore, Tennessee and Pittsburgh all have very good defenses and mediocre offenses this year. On the flipside, Miami, San Diego, and Indianapolis have good pass offenses but unexceptional running games and defenses.