NFL Luck?

by Ira Haron

The Luck thing.

Here's my 16^th week 16¢ worth:

Here's "Luck" according to me (so what?), plus a few extras.

Sorted from Best-to-Worst, then by Luck, is my number-crunched relative "Power", "Influence" and (if betting was legal) my "Index" which, after combining with such logical considerations as home/away, injuries, who's hot, who's not, who cares, who don't, who's angry, who's on the SI cover, and other important "tangible" football fudge factors could, possibly, maybe, be used to update and augment the numbers to then compare the opponents and lay a wager (?) when judged vs. the LV spread. My Luck factor works for me because of the relatively few numbers of NFL games. If played to infinity, Luck would asymptote for everyone to 1.00. This way, I see the "skew" which is what I wanted.

My SB column is what the rest of my calcs (not sent) determine who is a real SB contender. I can't figger why the Ravens are not in the elite group but it makes my stats even more interesting and SB-ing more exclusive. No, I don't know what the Raven's' flaw is (yet). I normally do 65-70% W-L and 55-60% ATS with "Locks" a little (but not much) better. And, no, I haven't bet on a game since my wife and I vacationed in LV about 20 years ago. This is for fun. I hate fun. I hate losing money.

OK. Back to Luck:

Several things that I have observed in all sports is that "Good teams, like people, make their own Luck"; "Luck favors the prepared mind'; "Opportunity knocks and they answer the door"; "Bad teams stand around looking to find ways and excuses to lose"; so, call it Luck or whatever, "Good teams have it, make it, and take advantage of it". Here's another , "Worry is rust upon the blade". Some teams seem lucky for a day but it doesn't last, does it? Over the course of the season, "Good teams find ways to win". I also say, and say again, "Don't ask a bad team to win for you", and "In the NFL, more games are Lost than Won (Luck?)." Maybe Detroit doesn't deserve any Luck.

Rank	Team	Luck	Power	Inf	Index	SB?
1	Tennessee Titans	1.4	2.4	1.1	26.9	SB
2	N.Y. Giants	1.3	2.0	0.9	23.1	SB
3	Baltimore Ravens	1.1	1.8	0.9	20.2	-
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	1.3	1.7	0.8	19.4	SB
5	Carolina Panthers	1.3	1.6	0.7	18.4	SB
6	New England Patriots	1.2	1.5	0.7	17.8	-
7	Philadelphia Eagles	1.0	1.5	0.7	16.9	-
8	Indianapolis Colts	1.4	1.4	0.6	16.7	-
9	Atlanta Falcons	1.2	1.4	0.7	16.2	-
10	N.Y. Jets	1.1	1.3	0.6	14.9	-
11	New Orleans Saints	1.0	1.3	0.7	14.8	-
12	Minnesota Vikings	1.1	1.2	0.6	14.2	-
13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.1	1.2	0.6	14.1	-
14	Dallas Cowboys	1.1	1.2	0.6	13.7	-
15	Miami Dolphins	1.3	1.2	0.6	13.6	-
16	San Diego Chargers	0.9	1.1	0.6	13.4	-
17	Chicago Bears	1.1	1.1	0.6	13.3	-
18	Buffalo Bills	0.9	0.9	0.5	10.6	-
19	Arizona Cardinals	1.1	0.9	0.5	10.3	-
20	Green Bay Packers	0.6	0.9	0.6	10.1	-
21	Washington Redskins	1.1	0.8	0.4	9.4	-
22	Denver Broncos	1.1	0.7	0.4	8.5	-
23	Houston Texans	1.0	0.7	0.4	8.5	-
24	San Francisco 49ers	0.9	0.6	0.4	7.4	-
25	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.7	0.6	0.4	6.8	-
26	Seattle Seahawks	0.6	0.4	0.3	4.8	-
27	Cleveland Browns	0.6	0.4	0.3	4.6	-
28	Oakland Raiders	0.7	0.3	0.2	3.1	-
29	Kansas City Chiefs	0.3	0.2	0.3	2.4	-
30	Cincinnati Bengals	0.6	0.1	0.2	1.4	-
31	St. Louis Rams	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.2	-
32	Detroit Lions	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	-

Now sorted by Luck:

Rank	Team	Luck
1	Tennessee Titans	1.4
8	Indianapolis Colts	1.4
2	N.Y. Giants	1.3
5	Carolina Panthers	1.3
15	Miami Dolphins	1.3
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	1.3
9	Atlanta Falcons	1.2
6	New England Patriots	1.2
14	Dallas Cowboys	1.1
22	Denver Broncos	1.1
17	Chicago Bears	1.1
21	Washington Redskins	1.1
12	Minnesota Vikings	1.1
10	N.Y. Jets	1.1
13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.1
3	Baltimore Ravens	1.1
19	Arizona Cardinals	1.1
7	Philadelphia Eagles	1.0
23	Houston Texans	1.0
11	New Orleans Saints	1.0
18	Buffalo Bills	0.9
16	San Diego Chargers	0.9
24	San Francisco 49ers	0.9
25	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.7
28	Oakland Raiders	0.7
20	Green Bay Packers	0.6
27	Cleveland Browns	0.6
30	Cincinnati Bengals	0.6
26	Seattle Seahawks	0.6
31	St. Louis Rams	0.4
29	Kansas City Chiefs	0.3
32	Detroit Lions	0.0