Randomness and Luck

by Bruce D
Here's some data showing the randomness and luck referenced in a post by Bruce D. (me) concerning "What's the Deal with the Falcons?" on Advanced NFL Stats.
My version of luck is similar to Brian Burke's version in that we're both seeking to find the randomness in the NFL, yet its very different in that Mr. Burke calculates expected wins based on team ability, and the difference between expected wins and reality is considered "luck".
My version of "luck" calculations look at each "luck" type play and assigns points (good+ or bad-) associated with each of these individual plays. In each of these cases, the good luck team gains luck points, and their opponent losses the same amount of luck points. Here is an excerpt from my humble web-site as to what I've deemed as at least partially lucky plays:

Play by Play Data for the 2010 Season

John Candido is compiling play by play data on a weekly basis for all to share. You can download the data from John's site or you can use the links below.

Week 1	Week 7
Week 2	Week 8
Week 3	Week 9
Week 4	Week 10
Week 5	Week 11
Week 6	Week 12

Surviving in a Suicide League - Week 9

By Chris Alan

Big games for the Saints and Packers bringing respect back to the NFC. There’s been lots of talk this season about the AFC continuing their dominance over the NFC in cross conference games. Instead, last week two of the AFC powerhouses were dismantled, Steelers and Jets respectively. For the season the AFC is winning 20-15 with 29 games remaining, so its likely the AFC will end up with the better record, but both those wins were pivotal for the two most popular NFC Super Bowl picks who currently have winning records (Cowboys and Vikings, I’m looking at you).

Interesting Stat: Since the beginning of the 2008 season, half of the Detroit Lions wins have come against the Washington Redskins. They did play in 2008, but I doubt thats any consolation now for Redskins fans.

Surviving in a Suicide League - Week 8

By Chris Alan

By the time the Ravens and Bills were playing in overtime last week I was rooting for Buffalo to pull off the upset and make me a 2008 Detroit Lions-esq perfect 0-4 in my picks. Personally I think it was a horrible call by the refs to allow a ball carrier to be picked up from the ground, carried backwards and get stripped from the ball. Or maybe I just don’t understand the point of forward progress, but either way I pulled out my first Pick of the Week win. Off to Vegas I go.

In previous years I could at least convince myself that I knew what was going on, but at least no one else seems to know what direction most teams are heading in this topsy turvy year for the NFL. Last week the only team to outscore the Kansas City Chiefs were the Oakland Raiders. Amazing.

Interception and counter-momentum?

by Andy Steiner

David Romer considers momentum in his paper “Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Professional Football”. In this study he looks at very good plays and very bad plays, and then the next three plays in an attempt to quantify momentum. He finds that there is no significant momentum effect (actually it goes in the reverse direction, the team that did poorly did slightly better than average on the next play). I wanted to look at a very similar effect; the momentum value of interceptions. I wanted to see how much more likely, in terms of actual points the intercepting team was to score. What I found definitely surprised me, although I should have seen it coming.

To see if interceptions have some extra effect, besides just the obvious value of taking the ball away from your opponent, I will simply compare the expected (actual) point curve for drives starting normally “normal starting”; and drives starting from interceptions.

Surviving in a Suicide League - Week 7

by Chris Alan

My Apologies to Chris. I was away and did not have access to the web until I'd returned this morning.

Another week, another Pick of the Week loss. The way the Cowboys were playing early I was expecting another underdog win, but alas they found yet another way to beat themselves. There’s a very interesting article by Brian Burke, the founder of advancednflstats.com, regarding the dire position the Chargers are in despite their impressive offensive stats. This week I’m going to work the right side of my brain to see if I can figure out any insight into the dismal Cowboys.

But enough of the loser talk, the pundants who get paid for their opinions don’t let being wrong again and again and again stop them, and neither shall I. Time to crack open a beer, pull out the dictionary, and write down my opinions about the upcoming games. Now on to this weeks conjecture:

Surviving in a Suicide League - Week 6

by Chris Alan

First, a quote from Jerome Bettis writing for Sports Illustrated (.com), “It's hard to say who the best team in the NFL is, but it's not coming from the NFC.”

My pre-season Super Bowl teams were the Green Bay Packers versus the Baltimore Ravens. In the AFC picture I still really like the Ravens but am starting to jump on the Jets bandwagon, and the Steelers are also making things interesting. Those are my front runners to earn a bye week heading into the Playoffs

On the flip side, there’s no compelling team in the NFC. Green Bay is hurting, though still capable. The Atlanta Falcons are making me wish I knew more about them, it’ll be interesting to see them play the Philadelphia Eagles this week. The NFC East race is still wide open and full of teams known for late season revivals.