Andrew Foland provided a solution to this all the way back in January 2011, but it has not been implemented, perhaps because of the complexity of the solution, perhaps simply because nobody has got around to it yet, whichever the case I am here to provide a simple alternative and hope it gets implemented.
The problem is that of combining the prior strength of the teams – the expected difference in performance over a game, let us call this S, with the current state of the game as expressed as a probability, WP. To do this we must consider the total game time, 60 minutes, and the game time remaining, T, in minutes.
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