tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post7959292105671074161..comments2023-03-23T07:34:12.473-04:00Comments on Advanced NFL Stats Community: Open ThreadUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-7290173852944500232010-12-01T19:52:57.224-05:002010-12-01T19:52:57.224-05:00It seems to me that many stats are highly unreliab...It seems to me that many stats are highly unreliable predictors of performance:<br />> yards gained and/or yielded (some teams average a touchdown per less than 100 yards, others over 150)<br />> points or even net points (the Packers are the leaders by far on net points, but not even leading their division.<br />As winning is ultimately what matters, I started putting together a spreadsheet of teams' records, along with the records of their opponents, and created an index of Qualitibility = team record * aggregate average of their opponents. Obviously, this was meaningless in the early weeks, but has become impressively accurate in latest weeks. With some major mistakes, such as Bears vs. Eagles. The present index of some teams (mainly NFC, but also most leaders):<br />NYJ: .352<br />NE: .385<br />PHI: .332<br />NYG: .268<br />CHI: .294<br />GB: .310<br />ATL: .423<br />NO: .292<br />TB: .276<br />SF: .155<br />Note: the Jets and Patriots have the same records, but the Patriots have played "winnier" teams. Atlanta is on top. The Packers should be above the Bears, and might still be.<br />I am aware that midseason changes, as in coaching changes, loss of QB or major players will not be reflected in this statistic (until the season is infinitely long).<br />But in its simplicity, it seems to be beating most predictions/bookies at this moment.JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-81001186724436282642010-11-21T15:19:33.248-05:002010-11-21T15:19:33.248-05:00How do I find stats on number of onside kicks, % c...How do I find stats on number of onside kicks, % converted, time kicked, score spread, etc.?<br /><br />If anyone could help that's be awesome!<br />Thanks, KevinFlanksteakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787471238027295891noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-24738691678717521422010-11-10T20:03:13.160-05:002010-11-10T20:03:13.160-05:00How do I find out stats on number of penalties cal...How do I find out stats on number of penalties called on which downs... or even which kinds of plays. What types of plays are most likely to incur a penalty? Is there a chart that shows which downs have the highest percentage of penalties called?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-36271033791180399632010-10-09T19:36:00.046-04:002010-10-09T19:36:00.046-04:00Has anyone done any work on the value of timeouts?...Has anyone done any work on the value of timeouts? It would be very useful not only in evaluating the use of timeouts, but also in evaluating challenge decisions.<br /><br />The expected value of challenging a call is: P(challenge success) * WP of the game state after call is overturned - P(challenge fail) * WP of current game state but with 1 less timeout.<br /><br />If you know the value of the timeout you are risking, you can say something like "I need this call to be overturned 75% of the time for this challenge to be breakeven" or similar.coopernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-55832273210073221972010-10-02T13:23:42.701-04:002010-10-02T13:23:42.701-04:00I was wondering what anyone thought fair trade val...I was wondering what anyone thought fair trade value would be for Brian Dawkins if he was traded in the off season (assuming he doesn't retire). What draft pick would be fair? A 4th rounder?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-34006993986723387652010-09-29T13:56:51.078-04:002010-09-29T13:56:51.078-04:00Just really wanted to thank you for your service. ...Just really wanted to thank you for your service. I guess you know how much we (Army) appreciate the fast movers. Blue skies forever. Thanks again. <br /><br />Scott Murphy<br />Fubar050408@yahoo.comim4unc23https://www.blogger.com/profile/11093399705119771915noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-88396212363568626222010-09-28T18:29:36.142-04:002010-09-28T18:29:36.142-04:00Does anyone know a source for finding out the perc...Does anyone know a source for finding out the percent of drives in the NFL that are, say...only 5 plays, 10 play drives, 20 play drives, etc. on scoring drives?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-31065677705212874782010-09-28T14:06:47.515-04:002010-09-28T14:06:47.515-04:00I would love to know what the record is for a team...I would love to know what the record is for a team following an overtime game, win or lose. I found it interesting that there were 2 games that went into OT in week 2. All 4 teams lost the following week. And all 4 teams were the favorite. What kind of toll does OT take on a team?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-38606982804542738472010-09-27T12:47:08.287-04:002010-09-27T12:47:08.287-04:00Have you looked into win ev of late game situation...Have you looked into win ev of late game situations ie....<br /><br />Going for 2 or kicking the EP up 7.<br /><br />?<br /><br />I would contend (without math, empirical evidence only intuition) that from a sheer win ev outlook going for two is by far the optimal play.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-25285709229121130582010-09-08T00:19:13.737-04:002010-09-08T00:19:13.737-04:00Brian,
Have you ever thought about analyzing the ...Brian,<br /><br />Have you ever thought about analyzing the value of a kick returner running the ball out of the endzone on a kickoff? You always hear announcers saying the returner made a "bad choice" when he gets tackled at the 17, but they never seem to say that when they return it for a TD. My hypothesis is that it's always better to come out of the end zone as a kick returner. Even if the avg starting field position is slightly worse than the 20, the times you score make up for the loss of EP.<br /><br />I'm not sure if the NFL play by play data divulges whether a kick was fielded in the EZ or not, but you could make some assumptions using average kick return yardage.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-14217618963772288792010-01-11T20:19:46.755-05:002010-01-11T20:19:46.755-05:00can you guys post Which NFL Team is saving the Env...can you guys post Which NFL Team is saving the Enviroment Most?<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-34269010730272929322009-12-13T14:48:17.839-05:002009-12-13T14:48:17.839-05:00I have a very simple request: Where can I find sta...I have a very simple request: Where can I find stats for pass completion percentage as a function of the distance of the pass?<br /><br />I'm looking for generic numbers, not stats for a particular player.<br /><br />ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-71575773319569549792009-11-29T05:34:22.811-05:002009-11-29T05:34:22.811-05:00I recently heard on an ESPN radio talk show that s...I recently heard on an ESPN radio talk show that statistically, teams that play OT games tend to lose the following weeks games ( winners & losers). I can't seem to find any stat to back this up. Any help here?? Thanks, MartyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-19237357074130424572009-11-23T10:05:36.630-05:002009-11-23T10:05:36.630-05:00Does anyone know where I can find QUARTERLY STATS ...Does anyone know where I can find QUARTERLY STATS for single games? I would like to see single game splits (per team, not player) to compare early rush/pass differentials vs. late rush/pass differentials. Let me know!David B.http://www.thumper300zx.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-24268774522970584932009-11-16T11:53:39.557-05:002009-11-16T11:53:39.557-05:00Hi Brian,
Have you done any work on late game situ...Hi Brian,<br />Have you done any work on late game situations to see if it would ever make sense for the defending team to allow the offense to score (i.e. if the opponent is deep in the red zone, and close to scoring, but also running out the clock), so that the defending team could then get the ball back and try to score themselves?<br />Thanks,<br />DennisAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-50238043754762348832009-11-02T23:04:21.663-05:002009-11-02T23:04:21.663-05:00No. Not enough data yet, but it would be interesti...No. Not enough data yet, but it would be interesting.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-14166136410890757592009-11-02T22:34:06.494-05:002009-11-02T22:34:06.494-05:00Brian,
There was a rule change this year outlawin...Brian,<br /><br />There was a rule change this year outlawing 'wedges' during kickoff. This was put in to place to minimize injuries during kickoff returns.<br /><br />Have you done any analysis on this change? Has it impacted the return yardage? Has there been any indication that it has reduced injuries?Bob Weberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09042611404424404470noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-83169521819500168102009-10-28T16:37:31.287-04:002009-10-28T16:37:31.287-04:00Brian-
There was a situation earlier this year th...Brian-<br /><br />There was a situation earlier this year that Charlie Weis was faced with, and he was crucified for making the media's view of a bad decision. On a 3rd and long late in a game he was ahead, he attempted to throw for a first down instead of running the ball, taking the time off the clock and punting.<br /><br />I am wondering if there would be a way to quantify whether or not Weis actually made the right decision. How much did the opposing team's chance of winning increase because of the loss of a hypothetical 4 yards and 40 seconds? What would have been their chance of winning had they achieved the first down?Eric B.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-6126528699762717482009-10-27T02:17:28.667-04:002009-10-27T02:17:28.667-04:00Brian - Where do you get your QB YAC data? I tried...Brian - Where do you get your QB YAC data? I tried your link to myway.com, but it only has 2008 numbers. Is this stat even publicly available for other years, or is it strictly a Stats Inc deal?Rednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-62906927991849752452009-09-23T22:29:20.873-04:002009-09-23T22:29:20.873-04:00neverlie-I've never seen that before, but ther...neverlie-I've never seen that before, but there is a blog devoted exclusively to NFL refs. I can't remember the url but I'm sure you'll find it quick on google.<br /><br />Anon-You might want to look at Pro-Football-Reference. They have some innovated stuff, such as Approximate Value, and some advanced passing metrics. You might like Football Outsiders, but the stats they tout are "proprietary," so take them with a grain of salt.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-7790392951550309652009-09-23T19:39:34.264-04:002009-09-23T19:39:34.264-04:00Where can I find advanced stats for players and te...Where can I find advanced stats for players and teams? I would like to be able to find a site where I could click on the team or player and get all the stat information available.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-53804949607144027032009-09-22T10:54:25.725-04:002009-09-22T10:54:25.725-04:00I am wondering the right way to calculate a team&#...I am wondering the right way to calculate a team's won/loss record with a given refereeing crew. Example: What is the Packers' won/loss record in games officiated by Ed Hochuli? I feel like I have seen these for NBA teams, but never the NFL. Do they exist?neverliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07263214766491872833noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-5310474096379687232009-07-05T23:42:07.474-04:002009-07-05T23:42:07.474-04:00wow, google got me here and within 2 hours my ques...wow, google got me here and within 2 hours my question was answered...and then some !!<br /><br />couldn't have asked for more, amazing stuff.<br /><br />thank you very much, keep up the great workjayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05407176808369128263noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-6965107341265515702009-07-05T20:49:58.245-04:002009-07-05T20:49:58.245-04:00Jay-
Check out:
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2...Jay-<br /><br />Check out:<br /><a href="http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/01/drive-results.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/01/drive-results.html</a>Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-38185824366999191182009-07-05T19:00:30.247-04:002009-07-05T19:00:30.247-04:00can you guys help?
whats the percentage of TDs sc...can you guys help?<br /><br />whats the percentage of TDs scored when starting inside your own 15 yard line (league average)<br /><br />thanks so much if this gets answeredjayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05407176808369128263noreply@blogger.com