tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post5724059555993773735..comments2023-03-23T07:34:12.473-04:00Comments on Advanced NFL Stats Community: 1st Down Game Theory: Equilibrium and Exploitable StrategiesUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-67072900886249510482012-12-19T21:06:57.801-05:002012-12-19T21:06:57.801-05:00Peyton Manning got countered very effectively in t...Peyton Manning got countered very effectively in the 2010 playoffs by the jets. What Peyton did to try to avoid the counter exultation was to call a bluff play, then call a play at the line after giving defense chance to stem coverage. the jets noticed in film that on average Peyton took around 7 seconds from when the OL was set until he hiked the ball, and they would stem coverage much later than normal, and as a result many of his intended exploits exploiting soft coverages suddenly would face press coverage, and press would suddenly face soft coverage look. His presnap reads could not be relied upon. the Falcons effectively mixed up the presnap look in 2012 season as well picking him off multiple times in the first quarter. Even so he is probably the best presnap exploitative QBs in the game. My "expected points" is based entirely on Brian's calculator which is entirely based upon past results. If NFL teams are making several mistakes this really is only a strategy that is I exploitable against the average opponent. In reality I think the expected points model will need to evolve to apply towards specifics. That is another thing I have worked on. A spreadsheet that allows you to customize individual probabilities of ending up in a given situation from another. That will determines probability of converting and then with some help of some other information determine your expected points on both offense and defense. You could then modify th spreadsheet based upon certain presnap reads and how your expectations change given that particular read. It would then produce "expected points" based upon more specific data. You can then develop strategies based upon some of these principals.... But there's a lot more explaining that would have to be done for people to really understand the functionality and how to estimate more specific conversion data. My hope is to publish a kindle book at some point, but I have a ton of editing and structuring to do. Mike snoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-81432791978117980492012-12-19T20:27:05.086-05:002012-12-19T20:27:05.086-05:00Yes this is a pseudo equilibrium strategy assuming...Yes this is a pseudo equilibrium strategy assuming that you can have such a solution on other downs and that the defense can neutralize opponents edge as well.. It's based on several assumptions. It is certainly far from perfect. And yes, a pure exploitative strategy would be 100% pass or run. What I did was a model that uses one function of the simplified "Kelly Criterion" risk management strategy to exploit based upon long term growth. Pure exploitative strategies assume opponents won't make counter adjustments. So this one hedges against it but is maximally aggressive based on some risk management theory that probably doesn't entirely apply. I used it because I think always doing one thing is so entirely exploitable and obvious,particulately in football, that one would have to be brain dead not to adjust. However with some mixture weighted towards the strongest strategy to the exact degree that it has value over the other is the maximally aggressively "Kelly criterion" strategy. The idea is that you can exploit to the strongest degree in which you can still handle the volatility of opponents counter adjustments. You can also better disguise the fact you are exploiting due to variance. I feel anything beyond this would not be exploitable over the long run because the strategy would become entirely obvious, and vulnerable. Rather than label it "Kelly criterion based semi exploitative strategy" without taking a lot of time to get into Kelly criterion and it's applications, I just labeled it "exploitative strategy". I personally feel realistically it is the maximum exploitative strategy that you can put into practice in real life or very close to it. The balanced strategy is a less aggressive exploitative strategy that reduces variance. In areas the Kelly criterion is commonly used 1 half the Kelly criterion bet will produce 3/4ths the result as the full Kelly bet with 1/2 the variance. But this is a really I'm depth subject and there are entire books on it. It usually applies to money management, not expected points management and is not always used in game theory, except perhaps with regards to a poker tournament or blackjack card counting to a limited extent.<br /><br />You are entirely correct about presnap reads, this is a subject I plan to get very in depth into. 8 men in the box or more makes passing easier and rushing more difficult in theory. I haven't seen an actual statistical analysis but it's pretty intuitive that there are solutions, yes passing plays has entirely different functions but if you want to get into specifics upon which one you have to read the coverage and know what percentage of the time the opponents defense actually sticks with the defensive coverage they show. Cover 2 would be vulnerable down the seems and the exploitative strategy would attempt the pass down the outside fade routes and corner routes underneath the safeties and 4 verticals against traditional cover 2, with a window underneath the MLB in a standard Tampa 2. Man cover two would require exploiting individual personel matchups, and depending on if the team uses inside or outside leverage might be rub routes (crossing drag routes) or whip routes (zig/zag routes). But there is also press man coverage and fade routes and slants or slants and gos work. Any natural pick routes works very well (Peyton Manning is the king of these combination routes that he will call at the line taking a very aggressive exploitative strategy that themike snoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-4811426195212841662012-12-14T14:00:20.560-05:002012-12-14T14:00:20.560-05:00All the stat-oriented discussion of play calling I...All the stat-oriented discussion of play calling I've seen pretends that plays are called as either pass, or rush in the huddle when, in fact, the quarterback frequently has the opportunity to make reads before the snap. Similarly, they assume that all rush and pass plays are equal, independent events, when, in fact, there's a huge difference in terms of expected outcome between say, a hail Mary and a bubble screen, and that play-action passing is silly unless you do sometimes run the ball.<br /><br />The article mentions a Nash Equilibrium, but there's no mention about what the defense's choices, or the relative payoffs are.<br /><br />As mentioned in the post, an exploitative strategy should never be mixed. (At best, it's ambivalent.) Yet the charts that are posted suggest that yours are.<br /><br />Natenoreply@blogger.com