tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post5100513373265473340..comments2016-07-29T03:02:20.310-04:00Comments on Advanced NFL Stats Community: Brees, Unitas and DiMaggio: 47-Game Streaks Fifty Years Apart, and that 56-Gamer, in Perspective.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-59615011156895014512012-10-16T07:43:00.081-04:002012-10-16T07:43:00.081-04:00I estimate that Brees had a 4.1% chance of a 47 ga...I estimate that Brees had a 4.1% chance of a 47 game streak given that he threw 114TDs, Unitas had a 1% chance as he only threw only 102. <br /><br />I assumed 11.5 possessions per game which means Brees threw a TD on 21% of possessions. So the probability of throwing none in a game is (1-21%)^11.5=6.6% so the probability of him scoring in a game is 93.4%. I then replaced the average scoring rate of .783 in the original post with .934 which is Brees’ scoring rate to get 4.1%.<br /><br />So really Brees’ streak is more a product of his high TD numbers rather than a miracle of consistency and Unitas’ streak is more unlikely as he threw fewer TDs. <br /><br />DiMaggio is a different kettle of fish<br /><br />DiMaggio during his 56 game streak hit .406 with an average of 3.98 ab per game. <br />So his probability of having a hitless game was (1-.406)^3.98=12.3% so the probability of the 56 game streak was (1-12.3%)^56 =0.06% so given how good DiMaggio was his streak was almost 100 times less likely than Brees TD streak given how good Brees was. I am sure there have been many players who have batted over .400 in a 56 game window but to get a hit in every game is much harder than to score a TD in every game if you are throwing 2.2 TDs a game as BRees was.<br /><br />If Brees keeps scoring at this rate his streak won’t be as unlikely as DiMAggio’s until around 75 games which is another 28 games or early in the 2015 season.<br />Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-55585434655547808572012-10-15T08:20:17.253-04:002012-10-15T08:20:17.253-04:00Another way of looking at it is given that he thre...Another way of looking at it is given that he threw 114 TDs in 47 games how do you work out the probability that he threw at least one in every game.I cant figure it out.<br /><br />And how many players have thrown 114 TDs over a 47 game period as Brees did. <br /><br />Just looking at Brady's season stats he threw 100 TDs from 05-07 (48 games) and 103 from 09-11 Manning threw 108 from 04 to 06 so if you start moving a window of 47 games they might come close.<br /><br />Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-81025808739454174642012-10-15T03:26:27.756-04:002012-10-15T03:26:27.756-04:00-The average team number is just a common "ya...-The average team number is just a common "yardstick" to measure by. It's not the actual probability of setting the record.<br />-The yardstick illustrates the relative scale of the accomplishments, it doesn't calculate their actual improbability. <br /><br />Of course. What I'm saying is that the average team number is not a good yardstick for football and does a very poor job of illustrating the relative scale of the accomplishments.Jasonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-56146857451961063562012-10-14T23:47:23.005-04:002012-10-14T23:47:23.005-04:00Jim, what he was saying was that each team plays 8...Jim, what he was saying was that each team plays 8 home games so its 32*8=256 games. If you count the away games (16 games) you are double-counting games you already counted as others team's home games.<br /><br />But in this context you're looking at "game-QB" pairs so 512 is still the right number.Stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10230344931186858123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-67575721032921685012012-10-14T19:53:49.221-04:002012-10-14T19:53:49.221-04:00Dude: Only 256 games per season.
Um, 32 teams pl...<i>Dude: Only 256 games per season. </i><br /><br />Um, 32 teams play 16 games each, 512 total.<br /><br /><i>I think using the average team/batter to determine per season results doesn't work well here. Especially for comparisons between sports. In football you have two ways to score so you'd get some teams built for rushing and some built for passing...</i><br /><br />The average team number is just a common "yardstick" to measure by. It's not the actual probability of setting the record. Clearly great QBs on top passing offenses designed to score passing TDs by the bunch, and batters who hit .357, have much, much better probabilities of setting such a record. Otherwise we wouldn't see such a record set in 10,000 years, literally.<br /><br />The yardstick illustrates the <i>relative</i> scale of the accomplishments, it doesn't calculate their actual improbability. There are much more sophisticated calculations to do that.<br /><br />And of course when comparing achievements between different eras during which so much has changed -- not to mention between entirely different sports as well -- there's a whole lot of subjective judgment involved. <br /><br />(Baseball fans still argue over whether Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays was "better", and they played the same position in the same sport in the same city at the same time.)<br /><br />All this is just information for those who might be interested, FWIW. <br /><br />Jim Glassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-48691621475448933132012-10-14T15:13:56.212-04:002012-10-14T15:13:56.212-04:00I think using the average team/batter to determine...I think using the average team/batter to determine per season results doesn't work well here. Especially for comparisons between sports. <br /><br />In football you have two ways to score so you'd get some teams built for rushing and some built for passing. I'd guess this split was more pronounced in 1941 (but that's just my guess). So while the hypothetical average team is unlikely to score passing TDs in consecutive games, the likely hood that one of the 'passing' teams does so would be much greater.<br /><br />I looked at the 1957 season and (excluding Baltimore) 2 teams scored passing TDs in 10 games and 2 teams scored passing TDs in 9 games. So 18% of teams had a 83% success rate and 36% had a rate over 75%. The average success rate you gave for the whole sample was 70.3%.<br /><br />An 83% success rate in baseball would be the equivalent of hitting .370. Only 1 batter out of 268 did this (0.3%) - Williams .406. Only 24 players hit .303 or better (9%).<br /><br />So I don't think using the average team works well for football. I have no idea what would work better but I'm sure there must be something.Jasonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-46815305086535844642012-10-14T12:54:50.974-04:002012-10-14T12:54:50.974-04:00Dude:
Only 256 games per season.Dude:<br /><br />Only 256 games per season.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com