tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post3329880578311606751..comments2023-03-23T07:34:12.473-04:00Comments on Advanced NFL Stats Community: Straight Up WinnersUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-24167422930485814292009-09-09T18:58:26.572-04:002009-09-09T18:58:26.572-04:00where can I find the average combined score by wee...where can I find the average combined score by week for NFL?<br /><br />In other words in there a pattern during the season?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-24524371883086266982008-12-28T21:48:00.000-05:002008-12-28T21:48:00.000-05:00I used the records that existed prior to the game ...I used the records that existed prior to the game being played. The "team with better record wins, tie goes to the home team" is simple, but is only correct about 62% of the time. Bet on the Vegas point spread favorite is another simple method and it wins straight up at about a 65% rate. If we use that method to rate our "skill", our models are not much better and we don't have much skill. LOL But neither of those methods give a probability of winning for each game, which is the outstanding feature of Brian's model.<BR/><BR/>The real questions....are Brian's independent variables really a proxy for the won lost record, and how does one prove it one way or another statistically.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12993457059315407356noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-27524862499627833072008-12-27T23:45:00.000-05:002008-12-27T23:45:00.000-05:00Very interesting. I assume you used to-date record...Very interesting. I assume you used to-date records, rather than latest season records as predictors?<BR/><BR/>There's an even simpler way, too. Just go with "team with better record wins, tie goes to the home team." It can get almost as accurate.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.com