tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post1833465642550929506..comments2023-03-23T07:34:12.473-04:00Comments on Advanced NFL Stats Community: An Example of TWP CalculationUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-20192250776252784572011-01-28T13:29:35.697-05:002011-01-28T13:29:35.697-05:00Wow - just found this 5 part series from Brian'...Wow - just found this 5 part series from Brian's post. Excellent, excellent stuff.MattyPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09238596881583799736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-65337434043581064152011-01-27T07:09:24.645-05:002011-01-27T07:09:24.645-05:00Amazing work!Amazing work!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-18860321114826397602011-01-16T09:42:01.506-05:002011-01-16T09:42:01.506-05:00That's the conversation I hope to stimulate, i...That's the conversation I hope to stimulate, if Brian has any interest in marrying the game probabilities to the WP calculator (at least as an option.) <br /><br />There are various places where the specific model I described is clearly improvable. I laid out the reasoning in gory detail because I think the reasoning is going to be pretty generic in any attempt to incorporate. But there are various details that attention will have to be paid to, in order to make it "really right". I've said I think remaining improvements will be numerically small, but that should be substantiated / contradicted (as the case may be.)<br /><br />In the meantime, I've uploaded a <a href="https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B3Cbko05xLmGNjU5NTI5N2YtODIzMC00ZmVhLTliYTctYTU4MDYwMjQ5N2Qy&hl=en" rel="nofollow">mwp(t) calculation Excel sheet</a> which makes part of the job relatively easy. <br /><br />Though the spreadsheet does make one tiny fudge relative to the described procedure, in calculating Delta(0) directly in the stochastic model rather than from the point differential table. Which reinforces the point, that there are still things to think about here. I'm already finding little tweaks here and there to the procedure I described.Andrew Folandhttp://nuclearmangos.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204092591876211047.post-18264031492212806262011-01-15T14:24:04.728-05:002011-01-15T14:24:04.728-05:00Alright, now how can we convince Brian to spend mo...Alright, now how can we convince Brian to spend more of his free time to make this automated?Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.com