Tuesday, January 7, 2014
A few years ago when I interned with ESPN, I had the pleasure of meeting the ESPN Analytics team. This was back when Total QBR was first being rolled out. After listening to a presentation the team gave on QBR, I became a fan of the metric. One of the things I was curious about was how weather impacted QBR. Does QBR go up in domes? Does QBR go down when it’s really cold? Dean Oliver, one of the creators of the statistic, was nice enough to send me the QBR data and I obtained the weather data by scraping the NFL gamebooks. I completed the study a few years ago but never thought of posting the results. Now, with the Green Bay-SF game expected to be bone-chillingly cold, I'm putting this post out.
When I conducted the study, I used an ANOVA to test if two samples of different weather data were significantly different. For example, one of the tests was rain
vs. no rain. I looked at a number of different categories: rain, hot/cold, wind, wind chill, domes, etc. Here were the results: