by Ian Simcox
So there I am, browsing my Twitter feed and I see this
Re HOU FG scenario: IND should still have gone for 2. Failed att means being down 15, which still gives 2 more bites at the 2-pt apple.
— Brian Burke (@Adv_NFL_Stats) November 4, 2013
Predictably the replies featured people as sure of the value of kicking the XP as Brian was of going for the 2.
At a 45% success rate on the 2-pts, the WP calculator says Indy have a 0.10WP if they kick the XP, comparing favourably to 0.09WP if they go for it (0.12 on success, 0.07 on failure). So, marginally the XPers have it. I must admit though, I plugged starting the 4th qtr down 10, 11 and 12 on 1st down into the calculator, to simplify the second part of this article.
What really interests me is the uncertainty around these numbers, which is always important on these tight calls. The XPers may have it on the WP calculator, but if those numbers are +/- 0.03WP then it’s impossible to say which is right.