by Bruce D
Here's some data showing the randomness and luck referenced in a post by Bruce D. (me) concerning "What's the Deal with the Falcons?" on Advanced NFL Stats.
My version of luck is similar to Brian Burke's version in that we're both seeking to find the randomness in the NFL, yet its very different in that Mr. Burke calculates expected wins based on team ability, and the difference between expected wins and reality is considered "luck".
My version of "luck" calculations look at each "luck" type play and assigns points (good+ or bad-) associated with each of these individual plays. In each of these cases, the good luck team gains luck points, and their opponent losses the same amount of luck points. Here is an excerpt from my humble web-site as to what I've deemed as at least partially lucky plays:
Saturday, November 27, 2010
by Bruce D
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
By Chris Alan
Big games for the Saints and Packers bringing respect back to the NFC. There’s been lots of talk this season about the AFC continuing their dominance over the NFC in cross conference games. Instead, last week two of the AFC powerhouses were dismantled, Steelers and Jets respectively. For the season the AFC is winning 20-15 with 29 games remaining, so its likely the AFC will end up with the better record, but both those wins were pivotal for the two most popular NFC Super Bowl picks who currently have winning records (Cowboys and Vikings, I’m looking at you).
Interesting Stat: Since the beginning of the 2008 season, half of the Detroit Lions wins have come against the Washington Redskins. They did play in 2008, but I doubt thats any consolation now for Redskins fans.